All organizations have to face an uncertain future due to complexity in the environment that they are operating. The degree of predictability varies from industry to industry. Scenario planning will enable an organization to deal with the uncertain future in a more convenient manner, minimizing surprises that the organization may face in the future.
The aim is not to arrive at a forecast but to consider a range of plausible outcomes and decide whether the company is able to deal with them.
There is no one right way to produce scenarios. Various approaches have been considered over the years. Following is one such way that any organization can develop scenario planning.
- Define scope of scenarios.
- Identify main stakeholders.
- Identify main trends.
- Identify key uncertainties.
- Construct initial scenario themes.
- Check for internal consistency and plausibility.
- Develop learning scenarios.
- Identify research needs.
- Develop quantitative scenarios.
- Develop decision scenarios.
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